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Learn How to Play Craps in 4 minutes

All results agree with what a basic spreadsheet will show you. If you only take 10x odds when the count is good, you can reduce the house edge down to 0. Everyone at Viejas would be ecstatic if they got real action on the game. Card craps is identical to the original game, except that the dice rolls are replaced by two cards dealts from a 5-deck constant shuffling machine CSM. You can easily count using a simple 3 roll window! Then, I apply a running count for each subsequent roll. Is there a reason you peg 44 as the number of cards in the buffer? I did not place any limitations on the number of cards in a slot. Similarly, you'll see that "snake-eyes" 1,1 has an equal effect on the 8 point, as does 2,2 affect the 9 point. That would be true if the cards that comprise the most recent roll had an equal chance of coming out of the CSM on the next roll. A fun, but very -EV way to employ the count is to make short-term place bets based on the count, on the most heavily-affected number. Thanks for such a complete explanation. If you download the spreadsheet and play around with the rolls, you can quantify the effect of various dealt cards on the distribution. For example, 1,1 and 1,2 and 1,1 bring the odds against the 8 down from 1. This buffer, or reservoir, is needed so the dealer can always quickly deal another card out of the CSM without waiting for the shuffle mechanism to spit out another card. I count out loud, and try to convince the floor supervisors that the game is beatable. But it does mean that the window needs to contain 5 good rolls to neutralize it. The spreadsheet will show you this, if you play around with it. And, you can immediately take down your odds if the count goes bad. This comes up frequently enough, but may not last long before the count goes bad again, either by a bad roll occurring, or when the good rolls fall out of the window. However, as the window widens, the correlation decreases slightly. Very often, the roll sequence makes your decisions obvious, and the count becomes very easy to track after the point.

Play the practice game below to see how the count for the point changes with each roll. A simple spreadsheet easily click the following article this calculation for us. This game punishes the players playing full pass odds.

So now, the probability of rolling a 10 is down craps flash cards. When craps flash cards dealer feeds the CSM after every roll, just keep track of the texture of the last rolls.

What I did not consider was a buffer in the CSW e. The table is always nearly dead. Together, the odds of hitting the craps flash cards instead of the 7 on the next roll is 2. While a pass craps flash cards bet is a normal 1. For example, a 2,2 1,2 1,1 roll sequence will make the 9 easier to hit 1.

So, you can intuitively see how a quick run of favorable rolls can affect the odds of hitting a point. The use of a CSM to deal the cards actually makes counting easier.

Next, roll a yo 5,6. It craps flash cards pretty mechanical once you have some practice. Steve is motivated by the challenge of finding these situations, not by exploiting them for personal profit.

So, this type of behaviour is not ruled out as card-counting. Do not play pass line odds without counting. Click on the screenshot to play hit the Auto button to watch it play by itself :. I see the reduction in relative odds on hitting points vs. The most important difference with a cards-based game than a dice game is that independence of rolls is gone, and instead you get correlation. However, the 5 and 9 are normal to the 7. It makes counting easier, since you only have to remember the texture of the last 6 rolls. The odds against the 9 are down from 1. A windowed count is different from a running count, in that you only add up the roll values for the last N-rolls out of the CSM. The CSM is your friend. I really enjoy the game, but the variance is too high for me to want to take it on. At 3 key cards in the window, the count goes to -3, and you should not lay DP odds. These sensitivities are summarized in the table below, showing "good", "bad", and "ugly" rolls for a given point. No one cares. If a high roll e. It would have been better for you to keep this secret for yourself; you would have had a meal ticket for life. Note that it takes 5 good rolls in the window to neutralize an ugly -5 roll. I set the minimum reservoir depth to 10 cards, and when the reservoir is lower than this threshold, the shuffler drops an entire slot into the chute. For example, say all of a sudden I see a 1,1 roll, followed by 2,2 , then 1,2. So, the probability of the first roll being an 8 relative to a 7 is lower than the normal ratio. But overall, you cannot overcome the vig of the place bets. That was before I had any idea the game was beatable. As most experienced gamblers notice immediately, the odds are a little different because of the shoe. On the other hand, you'd have almost a 0. The beta testers right now are competing for small weekly prizes based on how much play cash they win. Analysis shows that a simple windowed count with the above roll count values yields an amazing linear correlation to the dis advantage on the point. Actually, I wait for the count to get better than 2 before even laying 1x odds. A smart player can take advantage of the count of the shoe, and lay odds only when the count is good. Might be better….. If a high roll comes out again within the window, then the count is -4, and you should not lay DP odds against the 4. If the dealer allows muck to collect before feeding the CSM, widen your window to include the muck cards. If the count goes bad, pick up your odds. Ideally, you may change your odds bet on a roll-by-roll basis. All I know is that a spreadsheet and a computer program will show anyone how cards from recent rolls affect the distribution of the next roll, often significantly. You could not take your bets up and down like this in a standard craps tub format. The Five and Six are much more important to making the point, than they are to make a 7-out. While the edge is small, it plays very well, since counting is very easy, and your advantage can increase dramatically in a few rolls. On the come out, I think back if there was an ugly -4 roll in the last two rolls. To get an accurate analysis of this effect, you need to model the shuffler , insert it into a game, then find the correlations. Subscribe to comments with RSS. We enter these cards into the spreadsheet, and plot the distribution of the next roll out of the shoe. Also, I believe Barona used a pool of cards, whereas Viejas uses My bankroll might be able to handle that! As an example, we use the spreadsheet to graphically show the effect of 5 "high" rolls 6,6 6,5 5,6 4,4 5,4 out of a new shoe. Barona only offers 5x odds. The EV on the place bet is down to Its worth it to bet, just for the satisfaction of being Nostradamus. Keep track of the count for the given point. The good thing about this is that you get your vig back when you take the bet down. During the day, the dealers usually stand dead at the game. The correlation shows almost perfectly straight and parallel lines for each point. God knows how real this effect is, or how much time people put into attempting it. These are the same biases that we saw in the spreadsheet. If you call enough numbers, and openly count, the other players look at you, then look at the CSM. You can see my source code for the shuffler for complete details on how its modeled. What about counting and then when count is high you place bets on the 7 prop? If this is you, then you should play this game, and watch the cards towards predicting the next roll. As soon as two cards are dealt from the shoe, the distribution for the next roll changes. This graph clearly shows the effects of previously dealt cards on the distribution. Cheers, J. Of course, the more rolls you can remember, the more accurate your count is. These results match the spreadsheet results for a full shoe.